Retirement Calculator
See how your retirement savings could grow. Enter your age, current savings and monthly contribution to project your nest egg at retirement — with instant results and a year-by-year growth chart.
Project your nest egg
Enter your details.
Advanced options +
35 years of growth at 7% annual return
Each bar shows your balance at the end of that year — blue is what you put in, orange is what compounding added. Hover a bar for exact numbers.
- In the default plan, $10,000 plus $500 a month at 7% from age 30 to 65 grows to a $1,015,589 nest egg — only $220,000 of it is money you put in; the rest is growth.
- The Withdraw mode is not the 4% rule: it computes the exact annuity payment for your inputs, spending the nest egg down evenly so the last withdrawal lands in the final month.
- The Income needs tab works backwards from your salary — what you earn, how fast it grows, and the share of your final salary you want to replace — and shows both the nest egg that funds it and the savings rate that gets you there.
- At 3% inflation, prices roughly double every 24 years — which is why the projection offers an inflation toggle that restates your nest egg in today’s dollars.
The complete guide to retirement savings
How the projection works, what return to assume, why inflation changes everything, how much is “enough,” and what to do if you are starting late.
People ask me what the best retirement calculator is, and my honest answer is that the best one is the one whose assumptions you can see and change. That is how I built this page: a simple retirement calculator on the surface — five tabs, no sign-up, a free retirement calculator in the truest sense — that also works as a full retirement savings calculator and retirement planning calculator once you start testing returns, inflation and retirement ages. Everything below explains exactly what it does, so you can trust the number it gives you — or adjust the assumptions until you do.
🏖️How the retirement projection is calculated
Your balance grows with compound interest, compounded monthly. Your starting savings and every monthly contribution each earn the annual return, split into twelve monthly pieces:
r = annual return ÷ 12 · n = months until retirement
nest egg = P×(1+r)n + PMT×(((1+r)n − 1) ÷ r)
P = starting savings · PMT = monthly contribution · if r = 0, nest egg = P + PMT×n. Contributions are assumed to be invested at the end of each month.
Worked example: start at 30 with $10,000, add $500/month, retire at 65 earning 7%/year → nest egg ≈ $1,015,589 ($220,000 you put in, including the starting $10,000, + $795,589 from growth).
Compounding pays you on your past gains, so growth snowballs: early on, almost all of your balance is money you deposited. Later, growth takes over. With the default example above, 78% of the final $1,015,589 — about $795,589 — comes from investment growth, not from the $220,000 actually contributed. That is why starting early matters more than finding a slightly higher return: time in the market is the biggest lever you have.
📈What return rate should you assume?
The default 7% is a nominal planning assumption — roughly the long-run average annual return of a broad US stock-market index before inflation (about 4–5% after inflation). If you want a conservative plan, use 5–6% to leave room for lower future returns or a bond-heavy portfolio.
Nominal vs real matters enormously over decades. At a 4% real return, the same default inputs ($10,000 + $500/month, 30 → 65) project roughly $497,000 in purchasing power — not the $1,015,589 nominal figure. Turn on “Adjust for inflation” above (default 3%) and the calculator converts your return to a real rate with the Fisher equation — real = (1 + nominal) ÷ (1 + inflation) − 1 — so 7% nominal at 3% inflation becomes ~3.88% real, projecting about $485,000 in today’s dollars. Same savings, honest purchasing power.
📉Inflation: the silent tax on your plan
A dollar at retirement will not buy what a dollar buys today. At 3% annual inflation, prices roughly double every 24 years — so a 30-year-old’s $1 million nominal target is worth about $412,000 in today’s purchasing power by age 65 (1,000,000 ÷ 1.0335 ≈ $355,000; the exact figure depends on the path, which is why the inflation toggle compounds year by year instead of dividing at the end).
Rule of thumb: either project in nominal dollars with a nominal return (7%), or in real dollars with a real return (~4%) — never mix a real return with nominal contributions. The calculator’s inflation toggle keeps the two consistent for you.
🎯How much do you actually need?
Three frameworks, from quick to careful — pick the one that fits how precisely you want to answer “how much do I need to retire”:
- The 25× rule: save 25 times your annual retirement spending. Spend $40,000/year → target $1,000,000.
- The 4% rule: withdraw 4% of savings in year one, then adjust for inflation yearly — historically enough for 30 years. On $1,015,589 that is $40,624 in year one (about $3,385/month). Use the Withdraw tab above for an exact annuity payment instead of the rule of thumb.
- The 80% replacement rule: plan to replace ~80% of pre-retirement income (you save the rest, pay less tax, and stop commuting). Earning $100,000 → target ~$80,000/year of retirement income from all sources.
Then use the Plan to a target tab: enter the nest egg you need and it tells you the monthly savings required — targeting $1,015,589 from age 30 with $10,000 saved at 7% means exactly $500/month.
The Income needs tab runs the same logic from your salary instead of from a guessed lump sum: tell it what you earn, how fast your pay grows, what share of your final salary you want to replace, and the age to plan to (your life-expectancy planning horizon), and it works out the nest egg that funds that income — then checks your current savings rate against it. On the guide’s own example — a $75,000 salary growing 3% a year, replacing 80% of final salary, planned to age 90 — the target comes out at about $1,990,623, while saving 10% of salary projects to about $1,707,041: close, but roughly $283,582 short, which is why the tab also shows the rate that closes the gap — about 11.8% of salary. Every figure is an estimate built from the assumptions typed in, not a forecast.
🏦Social Security and account types
Your nest egg is not your whole plan. Social Security replaces roughly 40% of average wages for a typical retiree — add your expected monthly benefit in the Withdraw tab to see total monthly income including benefits. (Benefits depend on your earnings history and claiming age; check your SSA statement for your number.)
Account type changes the after-tax picture, even though this calculator projects pre-tax dollars: 401(k)/traditional IRA contributions cut today’s taxable income but withdrawals are taxed as income; Roth accounts are funded with after-tax dollars and qualified withdrawals are tax-free; taxable accounts get no deduction and pay capital-gains rates. Taxes are not modeled here — for decisions that matter, run the numbers with a tax-aware planner or advisor.
⏰Catching up if you start late
Starting late is not fatal — but it costs you. Saving just $200/month from age 30 grows to about $360,211 by 65, while saving four times as much ($800/month) from age 45 only reaches about $416,741 (both at 7%). If you are starting late, the fix is bigger contributions: $20,000 saved and $2,000/month from age 45 can still build roughly $1,122,628 by 65 at 7%. Time is the biggest lever, but bigger contributions can compensate — the worst option is waiting even longer.
🧮How much should I save for retirement?
This is the question I get more than any other, so let me answer it the way I answer it for myself. Forget picking a magic lump sum first — decide how much to save for retirement as a share of your pay, then let the projection check it. On a $75,000 salary, saving 10% ($625/month) from age 30, with $10,000 already saved and a 7% return, projects to about $1,240,721 by 65. Saving 15% ($937.50/month) projects to about $1,803,550 — you put in $403,750 of that; compounding adds the rest. Neither figure is a promise; both are honest arithmetic you can rerun above with your own salary and age.
Every how much do i need to retire calculator ultimately starts from spending, not salary: what will you actually spend in retirement? Work backwards from that — annual spending × 25 is your target nest egg (the guide block above explains why) — then use the Plan to a target tab to convert the target into a monthly amount. And notice the shape of the curve as you experiment: any retirement growth calculator will show you the same thing, that the last ten years of compounding are worth more than the first twenty. That is an argument for starting now at a rate you can sustain, not for waiting until you can afford a heroic one.
🔀Roth 401(k) vs traditional 401(k): which side of the tax bill do you want?
The question behind every roth 401k calculator search is really a tax-timing question, and the IRS rules are simple to state. A traditional 401(k) takes contributions out of your pay before tax, so a $10,000 contribution saves you $2,200 of tax today at a 22% marginal rate — but every dollar you withdraw in retirement is taxed as ordinary income. A Roth 401(k) flips it: you pay the $2,200 today, and qualified withdrawals in retirement — after age 59½ and the IRS five-year rule — come out completely tax-free.
Here is what that means in dollars. Let that same $10,000 grow for 30 years at 7% and it becomes about $81,165. In a Roth 401(k), you keep all $81,165. In a traditional 401(k), you keep about $63,309 if you withdraw at a 22% rate — but about $71,425 if your retirement tax rate is only 12%. So my rule of thumb: if I expect my retirement tax rate to be lower than today’s, I favour traditional; if I expect it to be the same or higher — or I simply value certainty — I favour Roth. Many savers split the difference and hold both, which also gives them a tax lever to pull year by year in retirement.
🏛️Adding a pension and Social Security to the projection
This page is not a standalone pension calculator, but used as a retirement calculator with pension income included, the Withdraw tab does the job properly: it has a dedicated field for a monthly Social Security or pension amount, and adds it to your withdrawal income instead of pretending your nest egg must do everything. That is also what makes it work as a retirement calculator with social security built in — your benefit reduces the amount your savings have to produce, dollar for dollar.
Worked example, recomputed with the same annuity maths the tool uses: a $600,000 nest egg, withdrawn over 30 years at a 5% return, supports about $3,221/month on its own. Add a $1,200/month pension and an expected $1,900/month Social Security benefit and your total monthly income becomes about $6,321 — without your savings working any harder. Two cautions from me: use your own SSA statement figure for the benefit (it depends on your earnings record and claiming age), and remember a pension without inflation adjustments buys less every year, which is exactly what the inflation toggle on the first tab is for.
💑Planning as a couple: two savers, one household number
Most retirement maths is written for one person, but most households retire as two. I run it as a retirement calculator for couple planning by projecting each partner separately — own age, own savings, own contribution — and adding the results. Say both partners are 30, each has $5,000 saved and each contributes $400/month at a 7% return: each projection lands at about $777,953, for a combined household nest egg of about $1,555,905 at 65 (identical, as it should be, to one run with $10,000 starting savings and $800/month combined).
Three couple-specific things I always check: stagger the retirement ages if one partner is older or wants out earlier — five fewer years of compounding is expensive, as the early-retirement block below shows; count both partners’ employer matches, because a household can leave twice as much match money unclaimed; and plan the spending side jointly, since the 25× target applies to household spending, not per person.
🚀Retiring early — and your financial independence number
An early retirement calculator run is just this same projection with a younger retirement age — and running it is sobering. Take the defaults: $10,000 saved, $500/month, 7% return, starting at 30. Retire at 65 and you project about $1,015,589. Retire at 60 and the same saving habit reaches only about $691,150. Retire at 55 and it is about $462,290. Leaving five years early costs roughly $324,438 — not because you saved less, but because the biggest compounding years are the last ones. To still hit $1,015,589 by 60 you would need to save about $766/month instead of $500; by 55, about $1,183/month. Early retirement is absolutely possible — it is just bought with a higher savings rate, not with optimism.
That trade-off is the whole idea behind a financial independence calculator: your “FI number” is the nest egg at which work becomes optional, conventionally 25× your annual spending. If your household spends $48,000 a year, your number is $1,200,000 — and from age 30 with $10,000 saved at 7%, the Plan to a target tab will tell you it takes about $602/month to get there by 65. Spend less and the number falls twice: the target shrinks and the monthly saving needed shrinks with it. That double effect is why the financial-independence crowd obsesses over spending — the maths in this calculator says they are right to.
401(k) mode: project your 401(k)
Most retirement saving in the US happens inside a 401(k), so here is exactly how I model one with this tool — deferral, employer match and all.
🛠️How I run this as a 401k calculator
A 401(k) contribution is just a monthly contribution with a payslip attached, which is why I treat this page as my 401k calculator: work out your monthly deferral from your salary, add your employer’s match on top, and enter the total as the monthly contribution. A retirement calculator 401k savers can actually use has to make that translation obvious, so here is mine. Earning $75,000 and deferring 6% means $4,500 a year — $375 a month — out of your pay. If your employer matches 50% of the first 6% (a common formula, used as an illustration throughout this section), that is another $2,250 a year, or $187.50 a month. I enter $562.50 as the monthly contribution, my current 401(k) balance as the starting savings, 7% as the expected return, and my target retirement age — and the projection, chart and growth split all follow. That is the whole method behind any honest 401k retirement calculator: salary in, percentage converted to dollars, match added, time allowed to work.
You no longer have to do that translation by hand: on the Project savings tab, open Advanced options and tick Include employer match — enter your salary, the percentage of it you contribute, and your employer’s match formula (50% of the first 6%, say), and the calculator adds the match itself and names it in the results. The same panel holds a contribution-escalation field: raise your monthly contribution by 3% a year and the default plan’s $500 a month no longer ends at $1,015,589 — it projects to about $1,388,645, because the later, larger contributions still get years of compounding.
🤝Employer match: the part of your return your employer pays
If there is one thing a 401k calculator with match has to show you, it is this: the match is not a bonus, it is an instant 50% or 100% return on the dollars it covers, before the market does anything. Let me prove it with the example above, same salary, same 7% return, starting at 30 with $10,000 already saved, retiring at 65:
| Scenario ($75,000 salary) | You + employer put in | Projected at 65 |
|---|---|---|
| Defer 3% — claim only half the match | $128,125 | $621,608 |
| Defer 6% — no employer match | $167,500 | $790,457 |
| Defer 6% — full match (50% of first 6%) | $246,250 | $1,128,155 |
Read the last two rows together: the employer’s $78,750 of match contributions across 35 years grows into about $337,698 of extra nest egg. And read the first row as a warning — deferring just 3% instead of 6% leaves you about $506,547 poorer at 65, because every unmatched dollar is a dollar that never compounds. My non-negotiable rule: contribute at least enough to capture the full match before sending a single extra dollar anywhere else. Month by month it looks undramatic — month one adds $562.50 of contributions and $58.33 of growth to your $10,000, ending at $10,620.83 — but that is precisely the point: the match plus compounding is a boring machine that gets very large.
🌱401(k) growth: where the ending balance really comes from
Think of this page as your 401k growth calculator run by hand, because a 401k compound interest calculator is really showing you one split: money in versus growth added. In the full-match example above, you and your employer together put in $246,250 over 35 years — yet the projected balance is $1,128,155. The other $881,905 is investment growth: interest earning interest, year after year. Early on the split is unimpressive (after year one the balance is about $17,694, mostly contributions), but the growth share snowballs until, in the final years, a single year of 7% growth on a seven-figure balance adds more than a decade of your early contributions. Two practical conclusions I draw from that: start before you feel ready, because the growth years cannot be bought back later; and do not interrupt the machine — cashing out a 401(k) when changing jobs destroys exactly the compounding this section is about, and usually adds taxes and penalties on top.
📋The 2026 IRS limits your projection should respect
A projection is only useful if the contributions in it are legal, so here are the current ceilings, named with their tax year as they should be. For 2026, the IRS allows you to defer up to $24,500 of your own pay into a 401(k) (IRS Notice 2025-67). If you are 50 or older, an $8,000 catch-up raises your personal ceiling to $32,500; if you are 60, 61, 62 or 63, the SECURE 2.0 higher catch-up of $11,250 applies instead, for a ceiling of $35,750. Saving outside a workplace plan instead? The 2026 IRA limit is $7,500, plus a $1,100 catch-up at 50 or older, for $8,600 in total. Limits are indexed and announced each autumn, so when you rerun your numbers in a future year, check the new IRS notice first — a plan built on stale limits quietly understates what you are allowed to save.
From nest egg to monthly income
A balance is not a lifestyle. Here is how I convert a projected nest egg into the monthly income it can actually pay you.
💵Two honest ways to turn a balance into income
The moment you switch to the Withdraw tab, this page stops being a savings tool and becomes a retirement income calculator — and there are two legitimate ways to read its answer, which I want to keep separate because they answer different questions. The first is the 4% guideline: withdraw 4% of your starting balance in year one, then adjust that dollar amount for inflation each year. It comes from historical US market research on 30-year retirements, and it is a guideline, not a guarantee — I use it for a quick, cautious estimate. On the default $1,015,589 nest egg it gives $40,624 a year, about $3,385 a month.
The second is the annuity method, which is what the Withdraw tab actually computes: the fixed monthly payment that spends the balance down to exactly zero over your chosen years at your chosen return. On a $750,000 nest egg at 5% over 30 years, that is about $4,026 a month ($48,314 a year, $1,449,418 withdrawn in total) — versus just $2,500 a month under the 4% guideline. Why is the annuity figure higher? Because it deliberately consumes the principal on schedule, while the 4% guideline tries to preserve purchasing power against inflation and bad early markets. My habit: use the annuity answer as the ceiling, the 4% answer as the floor, and plan my spending between them. Whichever you use, the monthly retirement income calculator view is the one that matters at the end — nobody spends a nest egg, they spend a monthly income.
When can I retire?
The calculator answers the savings side of this question. The calendar side belongs to Social Security — here is how I line the two up.
🗓️Your retirement age vs your Social Security age
A when can i retire calculator really answers two different questions at once. The first — “will my savings last if I stop at this age?” — is what the tool above computes, and you have seen the price of leaving at 55 or 60. The second question is when Social Security will pay you, and on what terms; those rules come from the SSA, not from your savings. You can claim as early as 62, but your full benefit waits until your full retirement age, which depends on your birth year:
| Birth year | Full retirement age (SSA) |
|---|---|
| 1943–1954 | 66 |
| 1955 | 66 and 2 months |
| 1956 | 66 and 4 months |
| 1957 | 66 and 6 months |
| 1958 | 66 and 8 months |
| 1959 | 66 and 10 months |
| 1960 or later | 67 |
The claiming maths, on an illustrative $2,000 monthly full benefit for someone born in 1960 or later: claim at 62 and the SSA reduces it by 30%, to $1,400 a month, for life. Claim at 67 and you get the full $2,000. Wait until 70 and delayed retirement credits of about 8% per year lift it to $2,480 — the maximum; there is no reward for waiting past 70. Medicare eligibility, separately, starts at 65. So when I test a retirement age in the calculator, I check three dates, not one: the age my savings allow, the age Social Security pays me in full, and 65 for health coverage. If the first date is earlier than the other two, my savings have to bridge the gap — and now you know exactly how to price that bridge.
More finance tools to try
Plan savings, loans and everything in between.
Watch any savings grow.
→Goal-seek any target.
→Employer match included.
→How to project your retirement savings
Three steps, instant answers.
Your current age and the age you want to retire at.
Current savings, monthly contribution and expected annual return.
Projected balance, total contributions and investment growth, live.
🏖️How the retirement projection is calculated
Your balance grows with compound interest, compounded monthly. Your starting savings and every monthly contribution each earn the annual return, split into twelve monthly pieces.
r = annual return ÷ 12 · n = months until retirement
nest egg = P×(1+r)n + PMT×(((1+r)n − 1) ÷ r)
P = starting savings · PMT = monthly contribution · if r = 0, nest egg = P + PMT×n
Worked example: start at 30 with $10,000, add $500/month, retire at 65 earning 7%/year → nest egg ≈ $1,015,589 ($220,000 you put in + $795,589 from growth).
📈How compounding accelerates your savings
Compounding pays you on your past gains, so growth snowballs: early on, almost all of your balance is money you deposited. Later, growth takes over. With the default example above, 78% of the final $1,015,589 — about $795,589 — comes from investment growth, not from the $220,000 actually contributed. That is why starting early matters more than finding a slightly higher return: time in the market is the biggest lever you have.
⏰Catching up if you start late
Starting late is not fatal — but it costs you. Saving just $200/month from age 30 grows to about $360,211 by 65, while saving four times as much ($800/month) from age 45 only reaches about $416,741 (both at 7%). If you are starting late, the fix is bigger contributions: $20,000 saved and $2,000/month from age 45 can still build roughly $1,122,628 by 65 at 7%.
Frequently asked questions
How does this retirement calculator work?
It compounds your starting savings and monthly contributions at your expected annual return, split into twelve monthly pieces, until your retirement age. You get three outputs: the projected nest egg, your total contributions, and the investment growth compounding added. Switch tabs to plan to a savings target, model withdrawals, see how long your money lasts, or work out from your salary what you will need.
What rate of return should I assume?
7% is a reasonable nominal planning default — roughly the long-run average annual return of a broad US stock-market index before inflation (about 4–5% after inflation). Use 5–6% for a conservative plan. Turn on “Adjust for inflation” to see results in today’s dollars instead of nominal dollars.
How much money do I need to retire?
A common rule of thumb is 25× your annual expenses (see the 4% rule). If you spend $40,000 a year, that means roughly $1,000,000. Use the calculator above — or the “Plan to a target” tab — to see whether your savings path gets you there.
What is the 4% rule?
The 4% rule suggests you can withdraw 4% of your savings in the first year of retirement, then adjust that amount for inflation each year, with a high chance of the money lasting 30 years. With a $1,015,589 nest egg, that is about $40,624 in year one.
Does this calculator account for inflation or taxes?
Inflation: yes, optionally — turn on “Adjust for inflation” and the projection converts to today’s dollars using your inflation rate. Taxes: no — the projection is pre-tax dollars and assumes a constant return. Taxes depend on your account type (401(k), IRA, taxable) and are not modeled here.
Is it too late to start saving for retirement?
No. Time is the biggest lever, but bigger contributions can compensate. Saving $2,000/month from age 45 with $20,000 already saved can still build over $1.1 million by 65 at a 7% return. The worst option is waiting even longer.
How much should I save per month to reach $1 million?
Use the “Plan to a target” tab: enter your target, ages, current savings and return, and it computes the required monthly contribution. For example, targeting $1,015,589 from age 30 with $10,000 saved at 7% needs exactly $500/month.
How much can I safely withdraw each month in retirement?
Use the “Withdraw” tab: enter your nest egg, years in retirement and expected return during retirement. A $1,015,589 nest egg over 30 years at 5% supports about $5,452/month, spending the balance down evenly. Add your Social Security benefit to see total monthly income.
How much does an employer match add to my 401(k)?
A lot — it is the single most valuable feature of most 401(k) plans. On a $75,000 salary, contributing 6% ($375/month) with a typical match of 50% of the first 6% adds $187.50/month of employer money. Projected from age 30 to 65 at a 7% return, the employer puts in $78,750 over the 35 years, and that match money alone grows into about $337,698 of extra nest egg — the difference between ending with roughly $790,457 without a match and $1,128,155 with one. To model yours, tick “Include employer match” under Advanced options on the Project savings tab and enter your salary, your contribution rate and your employer’s formula — the calculator adds the match for you. Match formulas vary by employer, so check your own plan’s formula.
Can I retire at 60?
Yes — if your savings can bridge the gap. Social Security cannot start until 62, and claiming then cuts your benefit by up to 30% if your full retirement age is 67, as it is for anyone born in 1960 or later (per the SSA). Medicare starts at 65, so you also need a health-coverage plan for the in-between years. In the calculator above, the real cost of leaving at 60 is five fewer years of compounding: saving $500/month from age 30 reaches about $691,150 by 60 versus $1,015,589 by 65 at a 7% return — which is why I always check the age-60 number before deciding.
What is a Monte Carlo retirement simulation?
A Monte Carlo simulation runs a retirement plan through thousands of randomly drawn return sequences instead of one smooth projection, and reports how the endings spread out. Each sequence uses the same average return and variability, but the good and bad years arrive in different orders, which matters because a bad year early in retirement does more damage while withdrawals are being taken. The output is a distribution of possible endings, not a single answer. It cannot give a true probability of success, because the average return and variability fed into it are assumptions, and different assumptions give different answers. Use it as a stress test: if the plan holds up under bad early years and lower returns, the margin is real; the exact percentage printed is not a promise.
How do I combine a pension and Social Security in one retirement plan?
Add the two monthly incomes, then check the three interactions that change the total. First, the pension amount and the Social Security estimate are independent: the pension comes from the employer’s formula or the pot, and Social Security comes from your earnings record and claiming age, so the calculator’s nest-egg-to-income figure and the Social Security estimate can simply be added for a gross monthly income. Second, timing differs: a pension may start at 55 or 60 while Social Security cannot start before 62, so the years between need bridging from savings, which is the gap the early-retirement section above prices. Third, tax differs: pension income is generally taxable as ordinary income, while Social Security is taxed only above the provisional-income tiers, up to 85% of the benefit. Add gross to gross for the headline, then apply each income’s own tax treatment before comparing the result with spending.
Monte Carlo simulation: what it adds, and what it cannot promise
One smooth projection assumes the average year, every year. Monte Carlo runs thousands of jagged ones instead — and reports how often the plan survived them.
The projection above is deterministic: it grows the balance at one fixed return, year after year, and the line it draws is smooth. Real markets are not smooth, and the order of the good and bad years matters — a bad year early in retirement, while withdrawals are being taken, does more damage than the same bad year late, when the balance is smaller or the withdrawals have stopped. A Monte Carlo simulation is the standard way to price that jaggedness. It takes the return assumption and a measure of year-to-year variability, draws thousands of random year-by-year return sequences from that distribution, runs the same contribution and withdrawal plan through every sequence, and reports the share of sequences in which the money lasted. The output is a distribution of endings — some comfortable, some short — not a single line, and the spread between the good and bad endings is itself the information: a plan whose endings cluster tightly is robust, and a plan whose endings fan out widely is fragile, even if the average ending looks fine.
What Monte Carlo cannot do is just as important, and it is where the method is most often oversold. It cannot tell you the probability that your retirement will succeed, because its inputs are assumptions: the average return, the variability, and the shape of the distribution are all chosen by whoever runs it, and a different choice produces a different “probability”. A simulation that assumes calm markets will report high success; the same plan fed a stormier history reports lower success, and neither number is a fact about the future. It also cannot model the things that are not in the distribution — a change in tax law, a long period of care costs, a decision to keep working — and it treats each year’s return as independent, while real markets cluster their bad years together. Use it the way this page’s deterministic projection should be used: as a stress test. Run the plan at a lower return, with a bad first five years, and with withdrawals a little higher than planned, and see whether it still holds. If the plan survives the stress tests, the exact percentage a simulation prints matters far less than the margin it reveals.
Excel check. The deterministic core behind any simulation is still the future-value formula: =FV(7%/12, 360, -750, 0, 0) returns $914,978.25 for $750 a month at 7% for 30 years — the smooth line. A Monte Carlo run is that same formula with the 7% replaced, month by month or year by year, by a random draw, repeated thousands of times. Spreadsheets can run small versions of it with RAND and NORM.INV, but the honest version needs enough runs for the distribution to settle, and it needs the return and variability assumptions stated alongside the result. This calculator keeps the deterministic projection and the stress-test habit; it does not print a success probability, because a probability built on assumed inputs would be mistaken for a promise.
Related calculators
More ways to plan your money.
Growth projections.
Goal-seek targets.
Match included.
Purchasing power.
Estimate liability.
Related guides
In-depth guides to help you retire with clearer numbers.
Your Social Security full retirement age, by the year you were born.
The savings number you actually need, worked out by age.
What retiring at 55, 60, 62, 65 or 67 really changes.
The 4% rule, and the order to spend your accounts in.
When you can collect, and what each year of waiting buys.
What the current proposals would change — and what is still just talk.